What Is ADP and How to Actually Use It

ADP — Average Draft Position — is the single most useful number on draft day, and also the most misunderstood. Used well, it’s a map of the room. Used badly, it’s a leash that drags you into bad picks.

What ADP actually is

ADP is the average spot a player gets drafted across thousands of drafts. If a running back’s ADP is 1.05, he typically goes fifth overall. It tells you when you’ll likely have to spend a pick to get him.

The edge is in the gap

ADP is a market price, and markets misprice things. Your advantage comes from the difference between ADP and your own valuation:

• Value: your model ranks a player higher than his ADP — let him fall to you.
• Reach: the room drafts a player far above value — let someone else overpay.

Don’t be a slave to it

ADP describes what the crowd does, not what’s correct. If you love a player and he’ll be gone before your next pick, taking him a round “early” is fine — that’s not a reach, it’s securing value you’ve identified.

ADP moves all offseason

Free agency, the NFL Draft, and injuries shift ADP constantly. A number from January is stale by August. Track the movement, don’t memorize a snapshot.

Want to see ADP in motion? The Cheat Sheet flags values and reaches live, and the Draft Simulator drafts against real ADP so you learn where the market breaks.