Amon-Ra St. Brown — WR · DET

AI outlook

Alpha target share (31.2% in 2025), 115+ catches 3 straight years, led NFL in red-zone targets. New OC Drew Petzing (run-first/heavy-personnel background) and O-line transition (Sewell RT->LT, new C/RT) are the swing factors for 2026; TD rate regressed toward mean.

Pros

Only player with 115+ receptions in each of the past 3 seasons
Led NFL in red-zone targets (33) in 2025
Career-high 31.2% target share in 2025 - true alpha role
Age 26, entering prime, no age-based decline expected
No recurring or chronic injury pattern on record

Cons

New OC Drew Petzing Arizona tenure trended run-first/heavy-personnel, could suppress early pass volume
O-line in transition (Sewell RT->LT, new C/RT) adds scheme uncertainty
2025 TD total partly inflated by red-zone target share; some regression expected
Minor ankle/knee dings late 2025, resolved, but noted

Why our rank differs from ADP

agree

Not available yet.

Full breakdown +

Not available yet.

Our model

Market ADP?	7
Blended rank?	8
Consensus rank?	8
Tier?	Tier 4
VBD score?	151.2

Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG

Standard	12.1
Half-PPR	15.6
Full PPR	19.0

Confidence tier

High