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Baker Mayfield
TB

Baker Mayfield

QBBye Wk 10● low injury riskMarket ADP 130 · QB17
Updated Oct 25, 2026
Per-game floor / ceiling · half-PPRProj. games: 15.6 / 17
Floor13.5
Proj.15.5
Ceiling19.8
AI outlook

Baker Mayfield Buccaneers QB. Consistent production. Offensive weapons. Strong arm. Analyst view: reliable QB2 play. UPDATE 10/25, Mayfield is back from his thumb dislocation and is expected to start against the Panthers, per Sunday previews. He is still listed as questionable.

Recent news
Mayfield expected to play Week 7 at CarolinaESPN, Yahoo Sports

Mayfield, back from his thumb dislocation, is expected to start against the Panthers per Sunday previews.

Mayfield dislocates throwing-hand thumb vs. Vikings, out 3-4 wksespn.com

No surgery needed; Jalon Daniels starts in the interim.

Strengths & concerns
Pros / cons +

Pros

  • Top-5 projected O-line, fully healthy for first time since 2024
  • Deep, talented WR/TE room (Egbuka, Godwin, McMillan, Otton)
  • Sticky CPOE/completion pct skill historically above average
  • 4th year of continuity in Tampa, system familiarity despite OC change

Cons

  • New OC Robinson ran bottom-5 PROE offenses in Atlanta (run-leaning, caps volume)
  • 2025 season injury-marred (MCL/PCL sprain, biceps contusion, shoulder) - durability question at 31
  • No 2026 TB-specific pace/red-zone data yet, all scheme inference from Robinson ATL tenure
  • TD rate and INT rate both due for mean regression, will compress ceiling weeks
Why our rank differs from ADP
disagree lower

out 3-4 weeks, thumb -- Jalon Daniels starts

Full breakdown +

- Dislocated throwing-hand thumb 9/27 vs MIN, no surgery needed - Bowles: out at least 3 weeks; best case 2-4 (Rapoport) - Jalon Daniels (undrafted rookie) confirmed starter in the interim - Re-evaluate once a firmer return date is set

Our model
Market ADP?130
Blended rank?125
Consensus rank?132
Tier?Tier 7
VBD score?4.8
Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG
Standard15.5
Half-PPR15.5
Full PPR15.5
Confidence tier
Med