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Caleb Williams
CHI

Caleb Williams

QBBye Wk 10● low injury riskMarket ADP 83 · QB8
Updated Oct 18, 2026
Per-game floor / ceiling · half-PPRProj. games: 15.6 / 17
Floor14.9
Proj.16.4
Ceiling19.6
AI outlook

Caleb Williams sophomore Bears QB. Year-2 development trajectory. Strong arm talent. Bears offense improving. Analyst consensus: QB1 upside play with youth factor. UPDATE 10/18, After three missed games and a full practice week, Williams is confirmed to play Sunday 10/18 despite the questionable tag. We closed the season absence row, so the 0-2 game adjustment no longer applies.

Recent news
Williams cleared to return from hamstring injury in Week 6 at ATLESPN, Sports Illustrated

After three missed games and a full practice week, Williams was confirmed to play Sunday 10/18 despite a questionable tag. Our 0-2 game adjustment is now too pessimistic.

Strengths & concerns
Pros / cons +

Pros

  • Ben Johnson play-calling, 2nd year of scheme continuity
  • Top-5 to top-7 O-line per multiple outlets, LT Braxton Jones back healthy
  • Upgraded weapons: Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland
  • Low 2025 INT rate (7 INTs) despite 20 interceptable throws suggests some turnover luck but also composure
  • Rushing floor adds weekly PPG stability
  • NEW 10/18, Confirmed to play 10/18 after a full practice week

Cons

  • Completion % ranked 32nd in league in 2025 (58.1%) -- sticky signal, concerning
  • 2025 Bears finished 26th in red zone offense, a step back from Johnson Detroit track record, root cause unresolved entering camp
  • TD rate (27 pass TD in 2025) and INT rate both flagged as regression candidates -- could go either direction
  • WR2 Luther Burden III camp injury (Aug 8-9, 2026) status unclear, could affect passing volume distribution
  • OC change (Press Taylor replacing Declan Doyle) adds small uncertainty even though Johnson still calls plays
Why our rank differs from ADP
disagree lower

Hamstring injury (Wk 2 vs. MIN) layers on top of an already-stale stance -- engine already had him below ADP before this news.

Full breakdown +

We rank Williams below his preseason ADP of 83, not above it as the old note claimed -- that text was stale from a recompute that already moved him under ADP on performance, before this injury. Now week-to-week with a right hamstring strain suffered 9/20; not practicing this week, questionable for the 9/28 MNF game. Zeroed via projection_adjustments for an estimated 2-5 games. Completion-percentage concerns from the preseason note remain relevant once he returns, but the injury is the near-term driver.

Our model
Market ADP?83
Blended rank?106
Consensus rank?106
Tier?Tier 6
VBD score?16.1
Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG
Standard16.4
Half-PPR16.4
Full PPR16.4
Confidence tier
Med