Caleb Williams — QB · CHI

AI outlook

Caleb Williams sophomore Bears QB. Year-2 development trajectory. Strong arm talent. Bears offense improving. Analyst consensus: QB1 upside play with youth factor.

Pros

Ben Johnson play-calling, 2nd year of scheme continuity
Top-5 to top-7 O-line per multiple outlets, LT Braxton Jones back healthy
Upgraded weapons: Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland
Low 2025 INT rate (7 INTs) despite 20 interceptable throws suggests some turnover luck but also composure
Rushing floor adds weekly PPG stability

Cons

Completion % ranked 32nd in league in 2025 (58.1%) -- sticky signal, concerning
2025 Bears finished 26th in red zone offense, a step back from Johnson Detroit track record, root cause unresolved entering camp
TD rate (27 pass TD in 2025) and INT rate both flagged as regression candidates -- could go either direction
WR2 Luther Burden III camp injury (Aug 8-9, 2026) status unclear, could affect passing volume distribution
OC change (Press Taylor replacing Declan Doyle) adds small uncertainty even though Johnson still calls plays

Why our rank differs from ADP

disagree higher

Year-2 leap environment: Ben Johnson, a top-5 line, upgraded weapons, and a rushing floor.

Full breakdown +

We rank Williams 68th (PPR) vs a consensus ADP of 83. A second year in Ben Johnson's scheme, a top-5 offensive line, and upgraded weapons (Odunze, Burden, Loveland) raise the median, while his rushing adds weekly stability. The completion-percentage concern is real and priced into our number -- the market is underweighting the environment.

Our model

Market ADP?	82
Blended rank?	69
Consensus rank?	106
Tier?	Tier 3
VBD score?	90.8

Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG

Standard	21.4
Half-PPR	21.4
Full PPR	21.4

Confidence tier

Med