Dallas Goedert — TE · PHI

AI outlook

Confirmed 2026 TE1 in PHI on a one-year deal; new OC reported to increase 12-personnel usage; AJ Brown trade (Aug 5 2026) mildly favors his target share. 2025 TD rate (11) expected to regress.

Pros

Unambiguous TE1 role, no camp competition for starting snaps
New OC (Sean Mannion) reported to favor more 12-personnel, boosting TE usage
AJ Brown trade removes a target competitor from the passing game overall

Cons

Age 31, 8th season - TE production tends to fall off past this age
11 TDs in 2025 is a career-high rate unlikely to repeat (TD regression)
Rookie Eli Stowers drafted in Rd 2 explicitly as the TE1-of-the-future
Offensive pace/scheme/PROE unconfirmed in stage1 data

Why our rank differs from ADP

disagree lower

Eleven TDs will not repeat -- at 31, we regress the scoring and fade the price.

Full breakdown +

We rank Goedert 173rd (PPR) vs a consensus ADP of 112. His 60/591/11 line was TD-inflated at a career-high rate, he is 31 at a position that declines past this age, and the team drafted Eli Stowers in Round 2 as the TE1 of the future. The role is safe; the 2025 scoring rate is not.

Our model

Market ADP?	126
Blended rank?	120
Consensus rank?	106
Tier?	Tier 5
VBD score?	0.0

Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG

Standard	5.6
Half-PPR	7.5
Full PPR	9.5

Confidence tier

Med