Dalton Kincaid — TE · BUF

AI outlook

Stage2 projection (run 3f08f46e-c269-4f10-9a13-12809a4aae21): TE2/committee role behind Knox/Hawes; declining route rate (68.3%->57.7%->44.2%) but elite yards/route (2.79, #1 among qualifying TEs 2025). TD regression flag = true (Allen dominates RZ rushing TDs, thin TE red-zone signal). Injury: recurring PCL/knee instability, no exact match to hamstring/ACL/concussion rules -- applied hamstring-recurring-style games-played discount (~75-80%) given missed 9 of 34 games over 2 seasons. Sources: Draft Sharks, CBS Sports, FantasyPros, Buffalo Rumblings (all Aug 2026).

Pros

Elite per-route efficiency: led all 41 qualifying TEs in yards/route (2.79) and targets/route in 2025
New OC Pete Carmichael (ex-Saints) historically has used TEs in structured passing game
Favorable Week 1 matchup vs Houston cited by Draft Sharks
Beane has stated priority is keeping Kincaid healthy and on field

Cons

Route rate has fallen every season: 68.3% (2023) -> 57.7% (2024) -> 44.2% (2025)
DJ Moore added to passing game in 2026, competing for targets
Recurring PCL/knee injury (multiple aggravations), missed 9 of last 34 games
Josh Allen dominates goal-line/RZ rushing TDs, capping TE red-zone equity
Roster competition at TE from Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes

Why our rank differs from ADP

agree

Not available yet.

Full breakdown +

Not available yet.

Our model

Market ADP?	132
Blended rank?	136
Consensus rank?	153
Tier?	Tier 7
VBD score?	-11.0

Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG

Standard	5.5
Half-PPR	7.2
Full PPR	8.9

Confidence tier

Low