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DeVonta Smith
PHI

DeVonta Smith

WRBye Wk 10● med injury riskMarket ADP 31 · WR15
Updated Oct 11, 2026
Per-game floor / ceiling · half-PPRProj. games: 15.6 / 17
Floor10.4
Proj.12.3
Ceiling15.3
AI outlook

WR1, expanded target share post-A.J. Brown trade. TD-rate regressed upward off 2025 career-low 4 TDs. Recurring hamstring flag applied to floor (~78% games-played), tempered by strong career durability. Rationale: volume-first model; role bump from A.J. Brown trade (PFF Aug 5 2026) drives median; scheme/pace/PROE unconfirmed for 2026 per Stage 1.

Recent news
DeVonta Smith officially ruled out for Week 5 London gameRotoBaller, Inquirer, ClutchPoints, thefantasyfootballers

Confirms the 10/9 on-the-wrong-side-of-questionable read. Discount escalated from 0.35x to 0.000x, expected back Week 6.

DeVonta Smith on the wrong side of questionable for Week 5 London gameNBC Sports Philadelphia / Bleeding Green Nation / PhillyVoice

DNP Wednesday, individual-only drills Thursday ahead of 10/11 London game. New 0.35x single-game discount applied, first adjustment on this profile.

Smith still sidelinedFootballguys

Remains out with hamstring issue.

Strengths & concerns
Pros / cons +

Pros

  • Uncontested WR1 role/target share after A.J. Brown trade
  • Elite tackle duo (Mailata, Johnson) stabilizes O-line
  • 2025 4-TD output is a rate outlier, not a role signal - positive regression likely
  • Only 2 missed games across 5 NFL seasons

Cons

  • Recurring hamstring flag (2024, Jan 2025, Aug 2026 camp)
  • Offensive pace/PROE/red-zone tendency/OC scheme unconfirmed for 2026
  • New WR room (Wicks, Lemon, Moore) could siphon low-value targets
  • Vegas win total only 10.5, Under favored -145 (BetMGM, Aug 8 2026) - not a high-volume-offense projection
Why our rank differs from ADP
agree

Hamstring, confirmed 10/11 officially ruled out for the Week 5 London game, game-time fade not a season-long change.

Full breakdown +

CONFIRMED 10/11: officially ruled out for Week 5 at JAX (Eagles announcement, RotoBaller, Inquirer, ClutchPoints). 0.000x single-game discount applied (projection_adjustments id 476), expected back Week 6 vs CAR. Barkley also out this week (own adjustment), PHI passing volume concentrates further on Brown and Goedert.

Our model
Market ADP?31
Blended rank?22
Consensus rank?32
Tier?Tier 3
VBD score?64.0
Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG
Standard9.6
Half-PPR12.3
Full PPR15.1
Confidence tier
Med