Jake Ferguson — TE · DAL

AI outlook

Jake Ferguson - TE for DAL. ADP rank: 132. Tight end with developing opportunity. Target distribution and red-zone work determining value. Analyst consensus: mid-tier value with situational upside. Sources: FantasyPros consensus aggregation.

Pros

Locked-in starting role with no real competition (Trigg/Schoonmaker not established threats)
Dak Prescott's top target in the passing game, high target floor
New OC explicitly focused on improving red-zone execution in 2026
Fast-paced, pass-neutral (57.7% PROE) offensive scheme sustains volume

Cons

8 TD in 2025 is likely unsustainable given yards/target profile -> TD regression risk
Concussion history (2025) is a durability flag
O-line uncertainty (Martin retired, unproven tackle depth) could dent offensive efficiency
Adams' 2026 emphasis on run-game identity could cap receiving-game ceiling somewhat

Why our rank differs from ADP

disagree lower

Eight TDs on modest yardage regresses -- the role is safe, the scoring rate is not.

Full breakdown +

We rank Ferguson 143rd (PPR) vs a consensus ADP of 133. His target floor as Prescott's short-area outlet is secure, but the 2025 TD rate is unsustainable for his yards-per-target profile, and the concussion history plus O-line turnover add drag. Modest fade, same player.

Our model

Market ADP?	136
Blended rank?	211
Consensus rank?	151
Tier?	Tier 9
VBD score?	-38.3

Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG

Standard	4.0
Half-PPR	5.5
Full PPR	7.0

Confidence tier

High