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Jalen Hurts
PHI

Jalen Hurts

QBBye Wk 10● high injury riskMarket ADP 80 · QB6
Updated Oct 18, 2026
Per-game floor / ceiling · half-PPRProj. games: 15.6 / 17
Floor19.3
Proj.23.6
Ceiling28.7
AI outlook

Jalen Hurts dual-threat elite QB. MVP-caliber talent on Eagles. Explosive rushing upside with strong passing. Consistent top-3 QB candidate. Analyst consensus: elite QB with rushing bonus. UPDATE 10/18, Hurts went on IR 10/17 with a superficial blood clot in his calf. He is out at least Weeks 6-9 with no firm return date, and Tanner McKee starts Week 6 vs CAR.

Recent news
Hurts placed on IR with calf blood clot; out at least four gamesNFL.com, CBS Sports

Eagles put Hurts on injured reserve Saturday 10/17 due to a superficial blood clot in his calf. He misses at least four games, with an indefinite timeline; Tanner McKee starts Week 6 vs CAR.

Strengths & concerns
Pros / cons +

Pros

  • New OC (Sean Mannion) reportedly restoring designed QB run volume after a depressed 2025 rushing season
  • Elite pass-blocking tackle duo (Mailata, Johnson) protects a dual-threat rushing role
  • Goal-line/short-yardage rushing TD role is a sticky, scheme-driven skill signal, not one-year noise
  • 28 years old in prime physical window, no age-related decline expected

Cons

  • Recurring concussion history creates real tail risk beyond normal QB injury variance
  • A.J. Brown trade (Aug 5, 2026) removes a proven top-tier target, replaced by unproven Wicks/rookie Lemon
  • 2026 offensive pace, PROE, and red-zone play-calling are unconfirmed - real uncertainty around volume under a new OC
  • Passing TD rate and INT rate are both expected to regress toward league mean, capping upside tied to 2025 efficiency outliers
  • NEW 10/18, On IR with a calf blood clot; out at least Weeks 6-9, timeline indefinite
Why our rank differs from ADP
disagree higher

The underpricing case rests on designed runs and rushing TDs, but the IR stint (out at least Weeks 6-9, return date unclear) means that value won't show up in the near term.

Full breakdown +

We rank Hurts 57th (PPR) vs a consensus ADP of 81. New OC Sean Mannion is restoring the designed-run role that was suppressed in 2025, and his goal-line rushing role is scheme-driven, not noise. The A.J. Brown trade hurts the passing ceiling, but the rushing floor carries the projection above his draft price.

Our model
Market ADP?80
Blended rank?237
Consensus rank?74
Tier?Tier 11
VBD score?-53.4
Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG
Standard23.6
Half-PPR23.6
Full PPR23.6
Confidence tier
Med