Jonah Coleman

Market ADP (144) likely reflects Coleman's draft capital (4th-rounder) and camp buzz around his three-down skill set (receiving + pass protection), which stands out relative to other rookie backs. Our model ranks him lower (174) because the stored profile shows he is buried behind two established backs (Dobbins and Harvey) in Denver's backfield with no clear early-down role in 2026. The profile explicitly flags: zero NFL sample (projection leans on college profile + camp buzz), a fluid backfield outlook amid other camp injuries (Henningsen, Mims, Waddle, Adkins), and a low confidence_tier. The ai_summary states value is "largely contingent on injury ahead of him or winning the 3rd-down job in camp" -- i.e. speculative, not a projected role. Analyst-foundation cross-check: supports our lower rank. The foundation doc's process template says to "distribute opportunity shares to players based on role, camp/preseason signal, depth chart" and explicitly instructs giving a range rather than a point estimate "when the situation is genuinely uncertain (committee backfield, unclear scheme fit, injury return)" -- Coleman is exactly this case: unresolved committee backfield, no confirmed role, contingent-on-injury value. The doc's opportunity-over-efficiency emphasis backs ranking him behind players with clearer, confirmed volume rather than at market price driven by draft capital/buzz alone.