Justin Herbert — QB · LAC

AI outlook

Justin Herbert Chargers QB. Elite talent. Strong arm. Improving team. Analyst view: tier-1 QB with upside.

Pros

Elite arm talent, sticky high-end CPOE/completion baseline over career
Tackle duo (Slater, Alt) both healthy and considered high-ceiling if they hold up
New OC McDaniel scheme historically friendly to QB efficiency (wide-zone play-action) in Miami
Full practice participation entering camp, no injury flags

Cons

Brand-new offensive scheme and playcaller = real installation/timing uncertainty in year 1
Interior O-line (guard/center) unresolved, open competition among 5 players as of camp
2025 efficiency dip (9 INT) creates wide range of outcomes pending regression direction
No 2026 regular-season pace data yet; all volume assumptions are estimates

Why our rank differs from ADP

disagree higher

Elite sticky efficiency plus a healthy tackle duo -- the market is pricing one down year.

Full breakdown +

We rank Herbert 72nd (PPR) vs a consensus ADP of 94. His career completion/CPOE baseline is elite and sticky, Slater and Alt are both back healthy, and the 2025 INT spike is exactly the kind of rate stat that regresses. McDaniel's play-action scheme has historically boosted QB efficiency.

Our model

Market ADP?	95
Blended rank?	77
Consensus rank?	109
Tier?	Tier 4
VBD score?	66.9

Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG

Standard	19.8
Half-PPR	19.8
Full PPR	19.8

Confidence tier

Med