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Justin Jefferson
MIN

Justin Jefferson

WRBye Wk 6● med injury riskMarket ADP 13 · WR6
Updated Oct 7, 2026
Per-game floor / ceiling · half-PPRProj. games: 15.6 / 17
Floor12.0
Proj.14.0
Ceiling16.8
AI outlook

Elite target earner poised to rebound with Kyler Murray upgrade at QB after a QB-driven down 2025 (WR36 PPG); recurring hamstring history and O-line/scheme uncertainty temper the floor.

Recent news
Justin Jefferson making progress on ankle, hopeful for Week 5 vs SaintsNBC Sports

Sprained left ankle Week 3, missed Week 4 vs MIA. Coach O-Connell said he made great progress this week but status for Week 5 vs NO is still unresolved as of this run. No prior projection_adjustments row existed for this injury, this run fills that gap.

Jefferson ankle sprain, MRI clean, could play Week 4espn.com

Avoided serious injury; real chance to play Sunday.

Strengths & concerns
Pros / cons +

Pros

  • Maintained elite target share even in a dysfunctional 2025 QB season
  • Major offensive catalyst: Kyler Murray added at QB
  • Alpha route runner with elite separation/tracking skill and total-target priority

Cons

  • Recurring hamstring history: 2023 tear (7 games) + fresh mild strain in Aug 2026 camp
  • Unproven chemistry with new starter Kyler Murray; QB competition unresolved as of source date
  • OL question marks (Darrisaw ACL return) and run-leaning staff hire could suppress pass volume
Why our rank differs from ADP
agree

Ankle sprain since Week 3, trending the right direction (great-progress report this week) but Week 5 availability still unconfirmed as of this run. Rank(9) vs ADP(12.5) gap is already inside the round-1 threshold, so no stance change, just a probabilistic single-game discount.

Full breakdown +

Not available yet.

Our model
Market ADP?13
Blended rank?10
Consensus rank?15
Tier?Tier 2
VBD score?88.9
Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG
Standard10.9
Half-PPR14.0
Full PPR17.1
Confidence tier
Med