Lamar Jackson
BAL

Lamar Jackson

QBBye Wk 13● med injury riskMarket ADP 57 · QB4
Updated Sep 3, 2026
Per-game floor / ceiling · half-PPRProj. games: 15.6 / 17
Floor19.9
Proj.25.6
Ceiling32.6
AI outlook

Unmatched rushing floor keeps weekly PPG protected even in down passing games; Ravens carry a league-high 11.5 win total and an upgraded interior O-line; unresolved OC situation (Monken retained per one report, gone to Cleveland per another) under new HC Jesse Minter creates real scheme uncertainty; 2024's historic TD efficiency and low INT rate are both due to regress; missed 4 games in 2025 to a hamstring injury that carries meaningful reinjury risk.

Recent news

No recent news on file.

Strengths & concerns
Pros / cons +

Pros

  • Unmatched rushing floor among starting QBs, protecting weekly PPG even in down passing weeks
  • Ravens carry the NFL's (tied-)highest 2026 win total (11.5), implying positive game scripts
  • Interior OL upgraded (1st-round G Ioane, re-signed Simpson) after a weak 2025 pass-pro season
  • No new injury flagged entering August 2026 camp; hamstring appears fully resolved

Cons

  • Unresolved coordinator situation (Monken retained per one source, departed to Browns HC per another) creates real scheme/volume uncertainty under first-year HC Jesse Minter
  • 2024 TD efficiency was a historic outlier and is likely to regress; INT rate likely regresses upward off it
  • Missed 4 games in 2025 to soft-tissue injury -- hamstring-type injuries carry ~38% reinjury risk
  • Offense remains bottom-third in pace (25th in plays/game, 2025) and run-heavy around Derrick Henry, capping passing-volume upside
Why our rank differs from ADP
disagree higher

Rushing floor and a league-high win total make him a top-3 overall QB despite market treating him as QB3.

Full breakdown +

- Unmatched rushing floor protects weekly PPG even in down passing games - Ravens carry a league-high 11.5 win total, implying positive game scripts - Interior O-line upgraded after a weak 2025 pass-pro season - Held back to med confidence by unresolved OC situation and hamstring reinjury risk

Our model
Market ADP?57
Blended rank?51
Consensus rank?52
Tier?Tier 2
VBD score?130.2
Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG
Standard25.6
Half-PPR25.6
Full PPR25.6
Confidence tier
Med