Lamar Jackson
BAL

Lamar Jackson

QBBye Wk 13● med injury riskMarket ADP 57 · QB4
Updated Oct 25, 2026
Per-game floor / ceiling · half-PPRProj. games: 15.6 / 17
Floor19.9
Proj.24.3
Ceiling29.7
AI outlook

Unmatched rushing floor keeps weekly PPG protected even in down passing games; Ravens carry a league-high 11.5 win total and an upgraded interior O-line; unresolved OC situation (Monken retained per one report, gone to Cleveland per another) under new HC Jesse Minter creates real scheme uncertainty; 2024's historic TD efficiency and low INT rate are both due to regress; missed 4 games in 2025 to a hamstring injury that carries meaningful reinjury risk. UPDATE 10/21, UPDATE 10/20: HC Minter called Jackson day-to-day and said he could practice this week. He has missed two games with the ankle injury. Week 7 vs CIN is possible, and some reports point to Week 8. UPDATE 10/25, Baltimore downgraded Jackson from questionable to out on 10/24 despite a limited practice, so he will miss a third straight game in week 7. Tyler Huntley starts again, and Jackson stays on the bench in lineups until he is cleared.

Recent news
Ravens downgrade Lamar Jackson to out for Week 7 vs. Bengals; Huntley startsYahoo Sports, ESPN

Baltimore downgraded Jackson (high ankle sprain) from questionable to out on 10/24 despite limited practice. He misses a third straight game; Huntley starts.

Jackson day-to-day with ankle injury, could practice this week before CIN gameYahoo Sports, Fox Baltimore

HC Minter called Jackson day-to-day on 10/20 and said he could potentially practice this week. Jackson has missed two games with the ankle injury. Week 7 is vs CIN, with Week 8 the latest target in some reports.

Lamar Jackson officially ruled out for Week 5, Tyler Huntley confirmed starting at AtlantaNBC Sports Boston / Bay Area, Newsweek, CBS News Baltimore

Confirms the 10/9 unlikely read, official designation now in. Discount escalated from 0.30x to 0.15x, games_out_min raised 0 to 1.

Strengths & concerns
Pros / cons +

Pros

  • Unmatched rushing floor among starting QBs, protecting weekly PPG even in down passing weeks
  • Ravens carry the NFL's (tied-)highest 2026 win total (11.5), implying positive game scripts
  • Interior OL upgraded (1st-round G Ioane, re-signed Simpson) after a weak 2025 pass-pro season
  • No new injury flagged entering August 2026 camp; hamstring appears fully resolved

Cons

  • Unresolved coordinator situation (Monken retained per one source, departed to Browns HC per another) creates real scheme/volume uncertainty under first-year HC Jesse Minter
  • 2024 TD efficiency was a historic outlier and is likely to regress; INT rate likely regresses upward off it
  • Missed 4 games in 2025 to soft-tissue injury -- hamstring-type injuries carry ~38% reinjury risk
  • Offense remains bottom-third in pace (25th in plays/game, 2025) and run-heavy around Derrick Henry, capping passing-volume upside
  • NEW 10/21, Has missed two games with the ankle injury; Week 7 status unsettled
  • NEW 10/25, Missed three straight games with a high ankle sprain; the 10/24 downgrade to out came after a limited practice.
Why our rank differs from ADP
agree

Ankle injury confirmed 10/11 officially ruled out, Huntley confirmed starting at ATL. Still a game-time fade, not a season-long value change.

Full breakdown +

Left 10/4 win over TEN in a walking boot, replaced by Tyler Huntley for the 2nd half. DNP Wed/Thu/Fri this week. CONFIRMED 10/11: officially ruled out for Week 5 at Atlanta, Huntley confirmed starting (Ravens site, NBC Sports, Newsweek, CBS News Baltimore). Discount moved 10/5 0.65x to 10/9 0.30x to 10/11 0.15x (projection_adjustments id 468), games_out 1-2. Prior healthy-baseline stance is unaffected, this is a single-week overlay. Re-derive once the engine recomputes post-injury.

Our model
Market ADP?57
Blended rank?80
Consensus rank?52
Tier?Tier 5
VBD score?38.7
Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG
Standard24.3
Half-PPR24.3
Full PPR24.3
Confidence tier
Med