Matthew Stafford — QB · LAR

AI outlook

Matthew Stafford Rams QB. Elite accuracy. Strong arm. Offensive weapons. Consistent production. Analyst consensus: tier-1 QB.

Pros

Elite surrounding weapons: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Terrance Ferguson, Tyler Higbee
McVay offense was the NFLs No. 1 scoring unit in 2025 (30.5 PPG) with low turnover/sack rate
Completion% and pocket processing are sticky skills, not TD-rate dependent
No QB competition -- workload is fully secure barring injury

Cons

2025 TD rate (7.7%) is a historical outlier for TD-rate regression -- 23/23 comp QBs regressed the following year
Age 38 with 17 years of starts -- QB decline risk plus back soreness already being managed in camp
Zero rushing floor -- all value tied to passing efficiency, unlike younger dual-threat QBs
Documented 2022 concussion history is a tail-risk flag for an in-season absence

Why our rank differs from ADP

disagree lower

A 7.7% TD rate that regressed in 23 of 23 comparable seasons, at age 38 with zero rushing.

Full breakdown +

We rank Stafford 97th (PPR) vs a consensus ADP of 85. Every comparable QB coming off a TD rate like his 2025 regressed the following year, he is 38 managing back soreness in camp, and he offers no rushing floor to cushion the give-back. Elite weapons keep him a QB1; the MVP-year price does not survive the regression math.

Our model

Market ADP?	87
Blended rank?	106
Consensus rank?	84
Tier?	Tier 6
VBD score?	27.2

Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG

Standard	16.7
Half-PPR	16.7
Full PPR	16.7

Confidence tier

Med