Michael Pittman — WR · PIT

AI outlook

Possession/chain-mover WR3 in new Steelers offense behind Metcalf; volume-based floor, capped ceiling, TD regression likely off 2025 career-high 7 TD.

Pros

Durable target hog historically (111 targets, 80 catches in 2025 with IND)
Explicit possession-receiver fit for Rodgers checkdown-heavy tendencies
Still in prime at 28, no ACL/concussion red flags
New 3-year, $59M deal signals team investment / expected role security

Cons

New scheme (Angelichio/McCarthy), new HC -- zero 2026 tape to confirm target share
Low aDOT (8.1) caps big-play/ceiling weeks
WR3 behind Metcalf in a run-first-leaning offense historically under prior OC; PIT already rostering Metcalf + Bernard
2025 7-TD total flagged for regression; recent minor lower-body ailments and played through a 2024 back fracture

Why our rank differs from ADP

disagree lower

Third read in a new offense with a low aDOT -- floor without ceiling.

Full breakdown +

We rank Pittman 99th (PPR) vs a consensus ADP of 85. He profiles as Rodgers' possession outlet behind Metcalf with an 8.1 aDOT that caps spike weeks, his 7-TD 2025 regresses, and there is zero tape in the new scheme. The target volume keeps him startable; the price assumes more.

Our model

Market ADP?	84
Blended rank?	92
Consensus rank?	77
Tier?	Tier 10
VBD score?	8.5

Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG

Standard	6.3
Half-PPR	8.4
Full PPR	10.4

Confidence tier

Med