Michael Wilson
ARI

Michael Wilson

WRBye Wk 14● high injury riskMarket ADP 78 · WR37
Updated Oct 15, 2026
Per-game floor / ceiling · half-PPRProj. games: 15.6 / 17
Floor6.1
Proj.8.6
Ceiling11.1
AI outlook

ARIs clear WR1 as of 2026-10-12, Marvin Harrison Jr. was traded to HOU, permanently removing the only player whose health suppressed Wilsons target share (his 2025 breakout, 23 catches for 337 yards and 5 TDs over a 4 game MHJ out stretch, already proved the mechanism). Wilson has also been productive and healthy through Week 5 (the camp concussion referenced in the old profile resolved months ago, not a current issue). Role security is now a season long thesis, not a conditional one.

Recent news
MHJ traded to HOU, Michael Wilson now ARIs clear full time WR1ESPN, Houston Chronicle, NBC News

Marvin Harrison Jr was traded away from Arizona on 10/12, permanently removing the only player whose health had been suppressing Wilsons target share. Wilsons own 2025 data already shows the magnitude, 23 catches for 337 yards and 5 TDs on 40 targets over a 4 game stretch when MHJ was out. Numeric rank sizing deferred pending Jay review, no independent adversarial recheck tool was available this run.

Strengths & concerns
Pros / cons +

Pros

  • MHJ traded away 10/12, Wilson is now ARIs unambiguous full time WR1, not a timeshare
  • Direct quantified precedent already on file, 23 catches for 337 yards and 5 TDs on 40 targets over a 4 game stretch when MHJ was out in 2025
  • Established 2025 rapport with QB1 Jacoby Brissett
  • Currently healthy and active, the old concussion recovery note was stale and resolved months ago

Cons

  • New OC Hackett has a wildly inconsistent red zone track record, best in the NFL at GB, worst with NYJ, TD equity unpredictable
  • LT Paris Johnson Jr. O line continuity risk
  • Independent recheck sized the bump conservatively (1.05x), much of the target consolidation already happened on the field before the trade itself
Why our rank differs from ADP
disagree lower

MHJ traded to HOU on 10/12, resolving the one condition (a healthy MHJ on the field) our caveat was built around.

Full breakdown +

Prior detail said rank 117th PPR vs ADP 80, target share cratered whenever a healthy MHJ played. That condition is now permanently removed, MHJ traded away not injured, Wilson is ARIs clear every down WR1 the rest of 2026. RESOLVED 10/15, independent adversarial recheck completed (fresh agent, no prior memory of this conclusion, built its own view from 2026 usage data before reading this row). Verdict agreed a positive adjustment is warranted but sized it at the low end of the originally proposed range, 1.05x, not higher, because most of the target consolidation already happened on the field before the trade (MHJ himself was marginalized in 2026, 5 catches on 85 yards through 4 games pre trade) and because the 2025 split sample used as precedent has an unsustainable TD rate component that should not be extrapolated even though the yardage and catch rate hold up. 1.05x projection_adjustments multiplier written 10/15.

Our model
Market ADP?78
Blended rank?99
Consensus rank?90
Tier?Tier 9
VBD score?3.7
Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG
Standard6.6
Half-PPR8.6
Full PPR10.6
Confidence tier
Low