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Patrick Mahomes
KC

Patrick Mahomes

QBBye Wk 5● med injury riskMarket ADP 110 · QB14
Updated Sep 3, 2026
Per-game floor / ceiling · half-PPRProj. games: 15.6 / 17
Floor14.2
Proj.16.6
Ceiling20.8
AI outlook

Patrick Mahomes MVP-level QB. Chiefs dynasty quarterback. Elite offense. Consistent top-3 QB. Analyst consensus: no-doubt QB1 lock.

Recent news
Patrick Mahomes torn ACL - season endingNFL.com

MVP QB suffers season-ending ACL injury late in Chiefs season

Strengths & concerns
Pros / cons +

Pros

  • Full complement of weapons: Kelce, Rice (if knee holds), Worthy
  • Bieniemy history produced 30.1 PPG offenses in prior KC stint
  • Cleared for practice, on track for Week 1, no games-played discount needed

Cons

  • ACL/LCL recovery inside 12 months caps rushing mobility/efficiency
  • Run-heavy shift with Kenneth Walker likely reduces pass attempts/rush TD upside
  • Rice workload-managed in camp for chronic knee inflammation - WR1 target share uncertain
  • OC change (Nagy out, Bieniemy in) adds scheme uncertainty
Why our rank differs from ADP
disagree higher

The market is over-discounting the ACL -- he is cleared for Week 1 with a full weapons corps.

Full breakdown +

We rank Mahomes 82nd (PPR) vs a consensus ADP of 106. He is full-go for Week 1 with Kelce, Rice, and Worthy, so no games-played discount applies. Our projection already trims rushing mobility and pass volume for the run-heavier Bieniemy scheme, and he still clears his draft price.

Our model
Market ADP?110
Blended rank?124
Consensus rank?98
Tier?Tier 7
VBD score?6.7
Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG
Standard16.6
Half-PPR16.6
Full PPR16.6
Confidence tier
Med