T.J. Hockenson — TE · MIN

AI outlook

Presumptive TE1 in MIN, ~79-target model share behind Jefferson/Addison/Jennings/Jones; ACL/MCL tear (Dec 2023) is now outside the 12-month efficiency-discount window. Coming off worst pro season; QB competition and a new run-leaning OC hire cap upside. TE positional guidance: weight role/opportunity over 2025 efficiency.

Pros

Locked in as clear TE1 on depth chart
Contract restructure signals organizational commitment
Track record of elite target share (2019-2022) if health holds
Aaron Jones/WR corps variance could funnel more targets his way

Cons

Coming off one of the worst statistical seasons of his career
Unresolved QB competition (Murray/McCarthy) adds passing-game uncertainty
New OC hire has run-heavy scheme background, could suppress passing volume
Crowded target tree
TD production highly volatile at TE position

Why our rank differs from ADP

disagree higher

Locked-in TE1 role with an elite target-share track record -- one bad post-injury year is driving the discount.

Full breakdown +

We rank Hockenson 153rd (PPR) vs a consensus ADP of 179. At tight end, role beats last season's efficiency, and Hockenson is the unquestioned TE1 with elite 2019-2022 target-share history, now well past his 2023 ACL. The QB competition and run-leaning OC keep him from ranking higher, but the market is pricing his worst season as his new baseline.

Our model

Market ADP?	169
Blended rank?	239
Consensus rank?	183
Tier?	Tier 10
VBD score?	-44.2

Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG

Standard	3.9
Half-PPR	5.4
Full PPR	6.9

Confidence tier

Low