Tory Horton
SEA

Tory Horton

WRBye Wk 11● med injury riskMarket ADP 221 · WR103
Updated Sep 3, 2026
Per-game floor / ceiling · half-PPRProj. games: 15.6 / 17
Floor1.8
Proj.4.7
Ceiling10.0
AI outlook

Buried on Seattle's depth chart behind JSN, Kupp, and Shaheed, capping his target-share ceiling; two consecutive season-ending lower-body injuries (2024 knee, 2025 tibia) are a real availability concern, though he's fully healthy and practicing without a setback as of August 2026; flashed real efficiency in a small rookie sample (5 TD, plus a 95-yard punt-return TD), but a 5-TD-on-13-catches rate is unsustainable and due to regress; strong pre-injury college production (back-to-back 1,100+ yard, 8-TD seasons, two-time First-Team All-Mountain West).

Recent news
Tory Horton Full Go at Camp After Cracked Tibia...But Still Off Redraft RadarDraft Sharks

Avoided PUP list after tibia surgery; Seahawks' Shaheed addition and Kupp/JSN presence cap his 2026 target share.

Strengths & concerns
Pros / cons +

Pros

  • Strong pre-injury college production (71/1131/8 in 2022, 96/1136/8 in 2023, First-Team All-Mountain West twice)
  • Flashed real efficiency as a rookie (5 TD, 95-yd punt-return TD) in limited action
  • Fully healthy and practicing in camp per Aug 2026 reports, no setback

Cons

  • Buried on depth chart behind JSN, Kupp, and Shaheed - low target-share ceiling
  • Two consecutive season-ending lower-body injuries (2024 knee, 2025 tibia)
  • 2025 TD rate (5 on 13 catches) is unsustainable and will regress
  • No sourced 2026 pace/PROE/red-zone data for SEA offense to support volume case
Why our rank differs from ADP

71-spot rank edge over ADP conflicts with bearish profile: buried WR4, unsustainable TD rate, low confidence. Likely error, not real conviction.

Full breakdown +

Market ADP (246) likely reflects Horton's buried depth-chart spot behind JSN, Kupp, and Shaheed and his history of two consecutive season-ending lower-body injuries (2024 knee, 2025 tibia), giving him a low-volume WR4/dart-throw profile per the stored ai_summary and confidence_tier=low. Our blended_rank (175) is 71 spots BETTER than that ADP, but nothing in the pulled profile supports a bullish stance: pros are pre-injury college production and a small, TD-inflated rookie sample (5 TDs on just 13 catches), which the profile itself flags as unsustainable and unlikely to repeat, and cons explicitly note there is no sourced 2026 pace/PROE/red-zone data to justify a larger role. Cross-checking against fantasy-football-analyst-foundation: the doc states "Opportunity beats efficiency, always. Targets, carries, routes run, and snap share are stable and predictive. TDs, YPC, and catch rate are noisy and regress hard." Horton's case is exactly the noisy-TD-rate pattern the foundation warns against, and he lacks the opportunity signal (buried depth chart, no volume data) that the methodology treats as the real predictor. This means the foundation doc contradicts a bullish 71-spot divergence rather than supporting one -- the stored research argues for ranking him closer to or worse than market, not 71 picks better. Flagging as a likely data/pipeline error rather than a defensible model opinion.

Our model
Market ADP?221
Blended rank?201
Consensus rank?
Tier?Tier 15
VBD score?-45.1
Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG
Standard3.6
Half-PPR4.7
Full PPR5.9
Confidence tier
Low