TreVeyon Henderson
NE

TreVeyon Henderson

RBBye Wk 11● low injury riskMarket ADP 59 · RB24
Updated Sep 3, 2026
Per-game floor / ceiling · half-PPRProj. games: 14.9 / 17
Floor7.8
Proj.10.4
Ceiling16.0
AI outlook

Committee back with Rhamondre Stevenson; explosive-play upside capped by pass-pro limits on 3rd downs. Flex-caliber PPR value with TD-regression risk after a heavily bunched 2025 TD total.

Recent news

No recent news on file.

Strengths & concerns
Pros / cons +

Pros

  • Elite explosiveness: 4 rush TDs of 50+ yards and 30 missed tackles forced as a rookie
  • 5.1 YPC (8th among qualifying RBs) shows efficiency independent of a retooling O-line
  • Team publicly emphasizing tempo and red-zone execution in 2026, both of which favor a big-play back
  • 83% catch rate on targets as a rookie shows receiving upside if role expands

Cons

  • Still a true committee - Stevenson holds early-down and passing-down trust
  • Pass protection remains a real weakness (34th/40 RBs in PFF pass-block grade), capping 3rd-down snaps
  • 2025 TD production was heavily bunched (9 of 10 TDs in 4 games) - due for regression
  • O-line durability risk (Vera-Tucker injury history) adds downside variance to the run game overall
Why our rank differs from ADP
disagree higher

Model favors explosive/red-zone role over ADP; market weighs pass-pro limits + committee split. TDs bunched (9/10 in 4 gm)-regression risk noted.

Full breakdown +

Market (ADP 51) discounts Henderson for being a true committee back - Stevenson holds early-down and passing-down trust, and Henderson graded 34th/40 RBs in PFF pass-block, capping his 3rd-down role. Our model (rank 39, +12 vs ADP) leans on his explosive-play profile as a rookie: 4 rush TDs of 50+ yards, 30 missed tackles forced, and 5.1 YPC (8th among qualifying RBs) - efficiency that held up independent of the O-line. Team commentary (per profile) points to more tempo/red-zone emphasis in 2026, which plays to a big-play back even within a shared workload. Counterweight: 2025 TD production was heavily bunched (9 of 10 TDs in 4 games), an explicit regression flag in the stored profile - confidence_tier is medium and games_played sample is 15.5, consistent with rookie-year variance rather than an established rate. Analyst-foundation cross-check: SUPPORTS. The foundation doc's process explicitly calls for flagging TD-rate regression candidates ("Flag TD-rate and other regression candidates explicitly - state the expected reversion direction") and ranks "opportunity beats efficiency" as the top philosophy - both align with how this profile is reasoned (role/opportunity-based outlook, explicit TD-regression caveat) rather than chasing last year's raw TD total. The doc does not contain RB-specific committee-role guidance beyond this general principle, so the check is a general-principle match, not a position-specific one.

Our model
Market ADP?59
Blended rank?83
Consensus rank?56
Tier?Tier 7
VBD score?25.4
Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG
Standard9.3
Half-PPR10.4
Full PPR11.5
Confidence tier
Med