Trevor Lawrence — QB · JAX

AI outlook

Trevor Lawrence Jaguars QB. Improving production. Strong weapons. Developing system. Analyst view: QB2 with upside play.

Pros

Entrenched starter, full offseason + year 2 continuity in Coen/Udinski scheme
Elite volume: WR corps (Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Travis Hunter) + rushing floor (5 projected rush TD)
Closed 2025 on a heater: 26.6 fantasy PPG over final 7 games, 108.6 rating
No 2026 camp injury reports as of Aug 8; healthy entering the season

Cons

9 rush TDs and 29 pass TDs in 2025 are TD-rate outliers likely to regress toward the mean
Interior O-line weak (C, RG both sub-60 PFF pass-block grades; unit ranked 28th/32 by USA Today) raises sack/pressure exposure
Concussion history (multiple incidents 2023-2024, most recent ended his 2024 season) is a standing tail-risk flag
No 2026-specific PROE/red-zone play-calling data published yet -- some inputs inferred from 2025 season totals

Why our rank differs from ADP

disagree higher

second year in Coen's system with a top-tier weapon set

Full breakdown +

- QB1-level per-game production down the stretch in 2025 (27 FPPG) - Camp reports have him well ahead of last year's pace at this point - Full second offseason in Coen's scheme, which has boosted every prior stop - Market ADP still lagging behind last year's late breakout

Our model

Market ADP?	88
Blended rank?	74
Consensus rank?	91
Tier?	Tier 3
VBD score?	79.9

Risk profile

Coming soon — we're rebuilding this rating from scratch to make it more accurate.

Projected PPG

Standard	21.2
Half-PPR	21.2
Full PPR	21.2

Confidence tier

Med