ADP vs Value: How to Find Draft Steals

Every draft is full of steals hiding in plain sight — players worth more than the spot they’re drafted in. Finding them isn’t luck; it’s a systematic comparison of value against ADP. Here’s the method.

The steal is the gap

Two numbers define every pick: what a player is worth (your valuation) and when he’s available (his ADP). When your value is well above his ADP, that gap is a steal. When it’s below, he’s a reach — let someone else pay.

Build your own values first

You can’t spot a steal without an independent opinion. Rank each position using real valuation — targets, touches, role — then compare your board to ADP. The players you rank meaningfully higher than the crowd are your targets.

Where steals cluster

• Post-hype names the market abandoned (see post-hype sleepers).
• Ascending roles the crowd hasn’t repriced (breakout candidates).
• Players in improved situations whose ADP still reflects last year.

Let value fall to you

The discipline is patience: don’t reach for a player when the board says he’ll be there later. Take the best value available and let your identified steals come to you at their ADP — or a round early if a run threatens them.

The takeaway

Draft steals are the gap between value and ADP. Build your own board, compare it to the market, and pounce where you’re higher than the crowd.

See the value-vs-ADP gap on every player live with the Cheat Sheet.