How to Track Summer ADP Movement

The offseason’s last big ADP shifts happen in summer, driven by camp reports, preseason snaps, injuries, and pure hype. It’s the final window to buy value before drafts go live. Here’s how to track it. (New to the concept? What is ADP.)

What moves ADP in summer

• Camp and preseason buzz. Beat-writer reports on roles and usage move players fast — sometimes on real signal, often on hype.
• Injuries. A starter’s injury can rocket a backup up boards overnight.
• Momentum. Once a player starts climbing, hype can push him past his value.

Separate signal from noise

Not all summer movement is real. A camp “riser” earning genuine role clarity is signal; a highlight-reel padded-practice star is noise. Ask whether the report points to actual opportunity or just excitement.

Use the hype cycle against the room

Summer hype creates two edges: fade the over-drafted names whose ADP outran their role, and buy the quiet risers the crowd hasn’t noticed yet — the same value-vs-ADP gap that defines every steal.

Injuries are opportunity

When a starter goes down, the backup’s ADP jumps — but often not far enough, fast enough. If you move first on a clear replacement, you bank value before the market fully reprices.

The takeaway

Track summer ADP for role clarity, injuries, and hype — then separate signal from noise. The final weeks before drafts are your last chance to buy value cheap.

Watch summer risers and fallers in real time with the Cheat Sheet.